Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 14.343432 17.478869 20.979550 25.155027 29.975984 35.343391 41.746046
2025-04-27 10.050667 14.146400 19.239724 25.936257 34.396517 44.612583 57.752285
2025-05-04 7.770410 12.251858 18.305294 26.855142 38.367258 53.061436 72.927413
2025-05-11 6.169416 10.759534 17.421386 27.413978 41.585837 60.489894 87.057577
2025-05-18 4.832423 9.291957 16.220179 27.203809 43.523799 66.151646 99.033006
2025-05-25 3.699876 7.855883 14.764781 26.319976 44.260932 70.042873 108.665029
2025-06-01 2.950482 6.880328 13.835708 26.043545 45.746976 74.953314 119.856799
2025-06-08 2.249598 5.807504 12.537827 24.955212 45.799728 77.667112 127.929805
2025-06-15 1.937736 5.429682 12.391544 25.740198 48.824290 84.938611 142.983476
2025-06-22 1.510305 4.681498 11.417622 24.933540 49.126693 87.987540 151.793770
2025-06-29 1.327502 4.449922 11.409740 25.854315 52.370341 95.782061 168.157762
2025-07-06 0.977509 3.685390 10.163547 24.276747 51.124090 96.262402 173.121810
2025-07-13 0.819972 3.413390 9.989127 24.883796 54.025220 104.045276 190.614472
2025-07-20 0.689753 3.178223 9.866163 25.604678 57.244173 112.636291 209.991914
2025-07-27 0.590250 2.999349 9.838804 26.511128 60.865409 122.090088 231.188566
2025-08-03 0.492274 2.780441 9.663260 27.064032 63.833381 130.550162 251.087549
2025-08-10 0.385851 2.471638 9.180245 26.856022 65.271491 136.373104 266.792071
2025-08-17 0.283544 2.110444 8.458533 25.981337 65.269201 139.584078 278.156535
2025-08-24 0.218202 1.868876 8.019317 25.707779 66.453050 144.975428 293.455561
2025-08-31 0.153140 1.567189 7.304456 24.630818 65.824537 146.943623 302.817556
2025-09-07 0.130041 1.490888 7.309705 25.407593 69.251971 156.694706 326.304791
2025-09-14 0.092075 1.272259 6.755975 24.609373 69.124208 159.632253 337.691100
2025-09-21 0.079237 1.226203 6.821119 25.520520 72.910751 170.313755 363.457528